(NAME-MCE) Racial, ethnic shift will impact college recruitment efforts

[Anselmo Villanueva]

Racial, ethnic shift will impact college recruitment efforts

Minority students are the growing edge of the U.S. high school population,
and although minorities are statistically less likely to seek higher
education, their undergraduate enrollment is nonetheless expected to grow
from 30% in 2004 to roughly 37% in the next seven years, and colleges are
preparing for the change. "The majority will become the minority," said
Stephen Joel Trachtenberg, professor of public service at George Washington
University.

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Wednesday, March 12, 2008

WASHINGTON -- Colleges and universities are anxiously taking steps to
address a projected drop in the number of high school graduates in much of
the nation starting next year and a dramatic change in the racial and ethnic
makeup of the student population, a phenomenon expected to transform the
country's higher education landscape, educators and analysts said.

After years of being overwhelmed with applicants, higher education
institutions will over the next decade recruit from a pool of public high
school graduates that will experience:

• A projected national decline of about 10 percent or more in non-Hispanic
white students, the population that traditionally is most likely to attend
four-year colleges.

• A double-digit rise in the proportion of minority students -- especially
Hispanics -- who traditionally are less likely to attend college and to
obtain loans to fund education. Despite those obstacles, minority enrollment
at undergraduate schools is expected to rise steadily, from 30 percent in
2004 to about 37 percent in 2015, some analysts project.

"The majority will become the minority," said Stephen Joel Trachtenberg,
president emeritus and professor of public service at George Washington
University. "There will be more Hispanics, more African-Americans, more
Chinese, Indians, Pakistanis, Koreans."

The demographic changes will be profound for individual students: Some will
likely see their chances of getting into selective schools improve, and
others will see opportunities to enroll at the most selective schools
decline. And for colleges, the demographic changes will mean new ways of
recruiting and educating students.

"One challenge will be looking at the interface between high schools and
college and the issue of college readiness, and the other will be the whole
of the cost of college," said David Ward, president of the nonprofit
American Council on Education.

The efforts come as the nonprofit Western Interstate Commission for Higher
Education plans to release a report this month that will show a decline in
high school graduation next year in most areas of the country, except the
West, senior research analyst Brian Prescott said. That is at least a year
earlier than seen in some past projections.

Schools likely to thrive through the changes will be those in popular areas,
endowed well enough to continue upgrading facilities and programs, and
public flagship universities that offer lower tuition than private colleges,
admissions experts say. So will schools with strong work force programs amid
a surge of adult students, said Trinity (Washington) University President
Patricia McGuire.

Schools in more remote areas, with fewer resources and no particular
academic focus, could struggle, said Steven Roy Goodman, an educational
consultant and admissions strategist.